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Ultra-high policy uncertainty and stop-start tariff escalations raised market volatility in 2025. Our baseline scenario is that tariffs and uncertainty will continue to weigh on the US, with US economic growth moderating around 2% and some potential inflationary effects.
However, we do not anticipate a sharp slowdown, as investment in AI-related capital expenditure is currently providing strong support. We expect global growth to converge, with a further fall in inflation outside the US and gradual rate cuts in 2026.
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